Landslide probability mapping by considering fuzzy numerical risk factor (FNRF) and landscape change for road corridor of Uttarakhand,India

Landslide poses severe threats to the natural landscape of the Lesser Himalayas and the lives and economy of the communities residing in that mountainous topography. This study aims to investigate whether the landscape change has any impact on landslide occurrences in the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor by detailed investigation through correlation of the landslide susceptibility zones and the landscape change, and finally to demarcate the hotspot villages where influence of landscape on landslide occurrence may be more in future. The rational of this work is to delineate the areas with higher landslide susceptibility using the ensemble model of GIS-based multi-criteria decision making through fuzzy landslide numerical risk factor model along the Kalsi-Chakrata road corridor of Uttarakhand where no previous detailed investigation was carried out applying any contemporary statistical techniques. The approach includes the correlation of the landslide conditioning factors in the study area with the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) over the past decade to understand whether frequent landslides have any link with the physical and hydro-meteorological or, infrastructure, and socioeconomic activities. It was performed through LULC change detection and landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), and spatial overlay analysis to establish statistical correlation between the said parameters. The LULC change detection was performed using the object-oriented classification of satellite images acquired in 2010 and 2019. The inventory of the past landslides was formed by visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images supported by an intensive field survey of each landslide area. To assess the landslide susceptibility zones for 2010 and 2019 scenarios, the geo-environmental or conditioning factors such as slope, rainfall, lithology, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), proximity to road and land use and land cover (LULC) were considered, and the fuzzy LNRF technique was applied. The results indicated that the LULC in the study area was primarily transformed from forest cover and sparse vegetation to open areas and arable land, which is increased by 6.7% in a decade. The increase in built-up areas and agricultural land by 2.3% indicates increasing human interference that is continuously transforming the natural landscape. The landslide susceptibility map of 2019 shows that about 25% of the total area falls under high and very high susceptibility classes. The result shows that 80% of the high landslide susceptible class is contained by LULC classes of open areas, scrubland, and sparse vegetation, which point out the profound impact of landscape change that aggravate landslide occurrence in that area. The result acclaims that specific LULC classes, such as open areas, barren-rocky lands, are more prone to landslides in this Lesser Himalayan road corridor, and the LULC-LSM correlation can be instrumental for landslide probability assessment concerning the changing landscape. The fuzzy LNRF model applied has 89.6% prediction accuracy at 95% confidence level which is highly satisfactory. The present study of the connection of LULC change with the landslide probability and identification of the most fragile landscape at the village level has been instrumental in delineation of landslide susceptible areas, and such studies may help the decision-makers adopt appropriate mitigation measures in those villages where the landscape changes have mainly resulted in increased landslide occurrences and formulate strategic plans to promote ecologically sustainable development of the mountainous communities in India's Lesser Himalayas.

     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Assessing the social cost of housing projects on the built environment: Analysis and monetization of the adverse impacts incurred on the neighbouring communities

Construction projects generate serious environmental adverse impacts on the adjacent residents. All those harmful consequences and damages that third parties or the community sustain due to the implementation of construction processes are called social costs. Although, the presence of social costs is widely mentioned in the literature, in the projects' initial cost estimation practices, the social costs are not estimated and included. Whereas since these costs are not compensated, problems can be emerged by the community. It is a truism that the majority of the models proposed to quantify the social costs have been concentrated on construction, repair, and maintenance of the infrastructure projects namely; utilities, roads, and highways. On the other hand, up to the present, a limited number of attempts has been made to quantify residential housing construction associated social costs. Thus, this research aims to expand and/or contribute to the existing body of knowledge via estimating how much social cost society surrounding residential housing construction sites are subjected to. For this purpose, a social cost estimation model is developed to assist industry professionals on how to estimate social costs in residential construction projects. The social cost estimation model is developed to provide guidance for phase by phase monetization of the residential construction associated social costs. In this paper, the model proposed for social cost estimation is validated via a case study in Turkey.     

Integrating ecosystem services in spatial planning and strategic environmental assessment: The role of the cascade model

Over the last decade, the ecosystem service (ES) approach has gained increasing attention because it offers important advantages for enhancing decision-making. However, a key and remaining challenge is how to implement this approach in real-world decision problems. This challenge is particularly relevant for governance and policy instruments, such as spatial planning and strategic environmental assessment (SEA), where including the ES approach is recognized as a great opportunity for achieving sustainable development goals. Consequently, this opinion paper proposes the use of the ES cascade model, as the basis to develop a framework that makes explicit the links among development objectives, sustainability goals, and the overall dependency on the ES supply. The main reflections address the need for a collaborative work between policy and science as a cross-cutting aspect for an interactive, participative and transparent research process that allows 1) the development of spatial indicators of ecosystem structures, 2) valuation and spatial modeling of ES, 3) identification of benefits and networks of actors, 4) the definition of values and, 5) generation of scenarios for a trade-off assessment of development alternatives. Finally, in addition to the information and knowledge generation regarding multi-scale relationships of the different components of the ES cascade, real-world evidence is urgently needed.     

Behavioral intentions toward genetically modified crops in Southwest Iran: a multi-stakeholder analysis

This study examined the influencing factors of the self-reported behavioral intentions toward genetically modified (GM) crops using a multi-stakeholder approach in the Khuzestan Province in Southwest Iran. The study focused on three different groups, including: “agricultural students,” “agricultural private firms’ managers” and “rich-resource farmers.” Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire and was analyzed by SPSS (V20) and AMOS (V20). Results indicated that the respondents perceive more benefits than risks for GM crops and that the perception of benefits and risks, respectively, had positive and negative impacts on the self-reported behavioral intention of the respondents. The knowledge of the respondents regarding these crops had positive impacts on perception of benefits. The results showed that both managers and students worried about the food safety and impact of GM crops on human health while farmers worried about the environmental risks of GM crops. The results also revealed that those who are the most conscious about GM crops are more trusted. The findings also showed that the majority of the respondents hold a positive view of the potential of GM crops.     

Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

COVID-19 effects on municipality waste collection services for households: statistical modelling of perspectives from Guyana and Nigeria

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - The novel COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the functioning of solid waste management globally as households experience an increase in their waste...     

The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Under what conditions do critical events trigger large-scale public discussion and mobilisation, and can these lead to policy change? In a comparative study of nuclear energy policy after the Japanese Fukushima disaster in March 2011, a theory-development approach is adopted, mobilising data collected from national news agencies’ newswires, public surveys, legislation and parliamentary databases, and newspaper editorials in 12 established democracies between March 2011 and March 2013. The analysis suggests two main hypotheses that can guide future research: critical events are more likely to trigger policy change when intense (contentious) mobilisation from policy challengers aligns with the views of the general public, and is backed by major political allies; and critical events are more likely to trigger intense (contentious) mobilisation when policy challengers articulate their opposition around pre-existing policy debates on the issue and resort to pre-existing organisational and mobilisation resources.     

Methane,nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions during storage and after application of dairy cattle slurry and influence of slurry treatment

Slurries are a significant source of CH₄, NH₃ and N₂O emissions to the atmosphere. The research project aimed at quantifying CH₄, NH₃ and N₂O emissions from liquid manure stores and after manure application under field conditions. The influence of the manure treatment options “no treatment”, “slurry separation”, “anaerobic digestion”, “slurry aeration” and “straw cover” on the emission level was investigated. Approximately 10 m³ of differently treated slurry were stored in pilot scale slurry tanks. Emissions were followed for c. 80 days. After the storage period, slurries were applied to permanent grassland. Greenhouse gas emissions from slurry were mainly caused by methane emissions during storage and by nitrous oxide emissions after field application of manures. Mitigation of GHG emissions can be achieved by a reduction in slurry dry matter and easily degradable organic matter content. Ammonia emissions mainly occurred after field application. Untreated slurry emitted 226.8 g NH₃ m⁻³ and 92.4 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ (storage and field application). Slurry separation (liquid fraction and composting of the solid fraction) resulted in NH₃ losses of 402.9 g m⁻³ and GHG losses of 58.5 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³. Anaerobic digestion was a very effective means to reduce GHG emissions. 37.9 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³ were lost. NH₃ emissions were similar to those from untreated slurry. Covering the slurry store with a layer of chopped straw instead of a wooden cover increased NH₃ emissions to 320.4 g m⁻³ and GHG emissions to 119.7 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³. Slurry aeration nearly doubled NH₃ emissions compared to untreated slurry. GHG emissions were reduced to 53.3 kg CO₂ eq. m⁻³.     

Efficiency and sustainability analysis of grain production in Jiangsu and Shaanxi Provinces of China

Efficiency and sustainability of grain production has now been an important issue in China. Aiming at analyzing such efficiency and sustainability in different parts of China, the grain production system of Jiangsu and Shaanxi Provinces was analyzed and compared by means of using emergy method in this study. The results showed that deterioration of emergy input structure (inorganic assistant emergy inputs increased drastically while organic ones decreased or increased little) affected the grain production system's efficiency and sustainability of both provinces, and the situation of Jiangsu Province is more serious than that of Shaanxi Province. According to the results of efficiency and sustainability analysis, this paper suggests that we should utilize environmental resources abstemiously and dramatically to reduce the assistant emergy input structure into the grain production system.